Australia’s Heatwave and Bushfire: A Case for Tackling Climate Change with Energy Transition

Prof. Syed Munir Khasru

Australian Outlook
September 4, 2024

Link: https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/australias-heatwave-and-bushfire-a-case-for-tackling-climate-change-with-energy-transition/

Australia has experienced an extraordinary and unseasonable heatwave during what should have been at the heart of the winter season. Temperatures across the country spiked as much as 16 degrees Celsius above normal August levels, putting all-time winter temperature records at risk of being shattered in multiple states.

This sudden and dramatic warming has been driven by a contraction of the typical cold fronts that would normally be present to the south of Australia. With these cold weather systems pushed further away, hot air has been able to build up and spread over the country’s northern and outback regions. Meteorologists warn that this unexpected and unprecedented heat could have significant implications, both for the population as well as the local flora and fauna, adapted to the usual winter climate.

The Australian bushfires of 2019-2020 caused extensive damage and captured global attention with images of widespread destruction, all of which was triggered by exceptionally hot and dry conditions during spring and early summer. Typically, such severe circumstances stem from a combination of factors, including human-induced global warming and natural weather and climate patterns.

Australia’s future climate is expected to become increasingly hotter, marked by more extremely hot days and fewer cool days. Average annual temperature is projected to surpass pre-human-induced climate change levels, known as a climate change “emergency.” Despite the previous decade being the warmest in the 20th century, it is predicted to be the coolest in the 21st century. The south and east regions face a prolonged fire season, heightened fire weather, and reduced cool-season rainfall, potentially leading to extended periods of drought. Intense rainfall is anticipated, contributing to rising sea levels and an increased risk of marine heatwaves and coral bleaching. While fewer tropical cyclones are projected, those that occur are expected to be more intense. Alpine regions will witness increased snowmelt and reduced snowfall.

Climate change poses a significant threat to Australia’s financial stability, presenting considerable systemic economic risks. The property market is projected to experience a AUD$571 billion decline in value by 2030 due to climate change and extreme weather. If emissions persist at high levels, this devaluation is expected to persist in the subsequent decades. Adverse droughts, heatwaves, cyclones, and floods are impacting agriculture and food production, influencing Australia’s economy and indicating potentially greater costs in the future.

The next decade’s climate change impact remains consistent across emissions scenarios, but by mid-century, higher emissions are forecasted to intensify warming and associated consequences. The recent surge in temperatures and the ensuing bushfires in Australia serve as a poignant reminder, reinforcing the pressing need to urgently confront the challenges posed by climate change.

Australia, traditionally dependent on fossil fuels, is currently undergoing a substantial energy transition. In doing so, it has showcased notable achievements in deployment of renewable energy and establishing ambitious policy goals, and pledging to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050—a commitment that aligns with the global objectives set by the Paris Agreement and places Australia among a select group of forward-thinking nations. The country has demonstrated significant growth in renewable energy, boasting the world’s highest per capita rooftop solar uptake, and leading in solar capacity per capita. In 2022, renewable energy, encompassing solar (14 percent), wind (11 percent), and hydro (6 percent), constituted 32 percent of Australia’s electricity generation.

Additionally, Australia is actively investing in cutting-edge technologies such as green hydrogen, pumped hydro storage, and carbon capture and storage. These strategic investments play a crucial role in developing a comprehensive clean energy system that can drive sustainable and eco-friendly solutions. Leveraging its abundant renewable resources, Australia stands on the brink of becoming a renewable energy superpower, with the potential to export not only clean energy but also its valuable expertise to neighbouring countries in Southeast Asia.

However, Australia is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels, including coal and gas, especially in the transportation and industrial sectors. This continued reliance is a major contributor to significant greenhouse gas emissions. Shifts in government and policy have introduced uncertainties and inconsistencies, creating challenges in attracting long-term investments in clean energy. Despite Australia’s commendable growth in renewable energy, it falls behind certain European countries and smaller island nations in terms of overall dependence on renewables.

In spite of the challenges, the advantages of transitioning to clean energy surpass the associated risks. Through persistent investments in renewables, advancements in energy storage technologies, and actively addressing community concerns, the country has the potential to build a future that is sustainable and environment friendly. While clean energy transition may not be a panacea, it represents a critical tool in Australia’s battle against climate change, and its efforts to decrease greenhouse gas emissions, enhance air quality, foster economic opportunities, and fortify a more resilient future for its populace.