Aukus, Quad will have to step up under Trump’s Indo-Pacific stance

Prof. Syed Munir Khasru

South China Morning Post
February 21, 2025

https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3299049/aukus-quad-will-have-step-under-trumps-indo-pacific-stance

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US President Donald Trump is expected to take a far more aggressive approach in the Indo-Pacific than the Biden administration as America strengthens ties with Australia and Japan.

Australia is deepening its security ties with the United States through the Aukus alliance (which includes Britain) and critical minerals agreements, while balancing its economic reliance on China. The US remains Australia’s largest investor and demand for Australian rare earths is growing parallel to China’s market dominance.

But Trump’s return brings economic protectionism, with potential tariffs that could strain trade. Despite these challenges, long-standing intelligence-sharing and military cooperation, including the joint defence facility at Pine Gap, keep the alliance strong.

Likewise, for years, Japan has been America’s top investor and plans to boost investment to US$1 trillion. It is also increasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the US while maintaining a careful approach to trade disputes. India, meanwhile, is set to receive billions in US weapons, including potential F-35 stealth jets, as part of a growing defence partnership.

These developments reflect America’s focus on strengthening alliances in the Indo-Pacific while countering China’s influence, as security alliances such as Aukus and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue gain more momentum under Trump than under Biden.

Though the Quad was revived by Trump in November 2017, its fading momentum reflected Biden’s failure to turn diplomacy into strategic influence. Biden’s decision to skip the 2023 Sydney summit exposed the alliance’s weaknesses. During Biden’s tenure, despite being outlined as a counterweight to China, the Quad struggled to unify.

India prioritised strategic autonomy, maintaining strong ties with Russia and avoiding firm stances on issues like the Ukraine war and the Myanmar junta’s brutal suppression of its people as well as persecution of the Rohingya. And while the US, Australia and Japan strengthened their military cooperation in November last year, India, also a Quad member, was not included in the agreement.

Moreover, the Quad failed to deliver on important initiatives, like its vaccine partnership. Overall, Biden’s broader Indo-Pacific strategy, often called a “lattice” of alliances, fell short.

Given that Trump perceives China as America’s rival, he is expected to use his second term to go the extra mile and push back China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. His secretary of state, Marco Rubio, focused on Quad as his first major task by including it as a key aspect of US strategy.

A recent Quad meeting in Washington, held just a day after Trump’s inauguration, indicated commitment from the US, India, Japan and Australia to security and economic cooperation. Trump also plans to visit India for the next Quad summit, a sign of US interest and growing concern with China’s regional and territorial ambitions.

Though founded under the Biden administration, Aukus remains an integral part of the US defence strategy under Trump. While Biden saw Aukus as part of a bigger regional plan, Trump’s team views it as a model for strong military alliances. US officials have confirmed their support, with Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth stressing its importance.

Under Aukus, the US will provide Australia with advanced Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines. This will give Australia top-tier naval capabilities. Additionally, Australia recently sent US$500 million to boost US submarine production, showing a shared commitment to defence. Though building these submarines on time is a challenge, Trump’s team may push for faster production. His history of increasing defence spending and cutting red tape suggests he will prioritise this deal.

Aukus is also about more than submarines. It involves collaboration in technologies like artificial intelligence, cyberdefence and quantum computing. Trump values military strength and innovation, which fits Aukus’ goal of integrating advanced defence technology.

Besides, the Trump administration may explore ways to expand the pact, strengthening US security leadership in the region. Amid changing political dynamics, Aukus projects the power of US-led alliances, offering a model for military cooperation.

Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy is clear. He sees the Quad and Aukus not as diplomatic forums, but as security coalitions meant to challenge China’s regional ambitions. His administration will push for faster military integration, greater burden-sharing among allies and a more forceful stance in the region.

This shift will test how far India, Japan and Australia are willing to go in challenging China’s influence. While Biden preferred a cautious and calculated approach, Trump will pressure allies to take bolder steps, whether they are ready or not.

For the Quad, this means moving beyond symbolic gestures and becoming an active deterrent force in the Indo-Pacific. For Aukus, it means pushing Australia to develop military capabilities at a pace not seen before.

There is a real possibility that Trump’s approach could provoke increasing tensions in the South China Sea, across the Taiwan Strait and even along the Himalayan border. But the other side of the coin suggests an aggressive US presence could deter Beijing from pushing its territorial ambitions further.

The Indo-Pacific is entering a period of strategic uncertainty, and how the Quad and Aukus evolve under Trump will shape regional security. Unlike Biden’s balanced and careful strategy, Trump will demand results and expect his allies to deliver. Hence, one may anticipate stronger military ties, expanded joint drills and deeper intelligence-sharing between the four countries under Trump 2.0. Similarly, given his track record, Trump’s approach will also be more direct when it comes to China.

Unlike Biden, who kept Quad statements vague and diplomatic, Trump will not hesitate to call a spade a spade and be openly critical of, even confrontational about, Beijing’s actions.